84% of Lenders Expect Revenue Growth in 2026 — So Why Aren't They Hiring?
A combined 84% of mortgage industry professionals expect revenue to increase in 2026 compared to 2025, against just 3% who anticipate a decline, according to National Mortgage News' Predictions 2026 survey of 156 industry professionals. That's about as bullish an outlook as this industry gets. Hiring plans tell a very different story.
The Optimism Is Real, But Hiring Isn't Following It
The survey's rosier outlook lines up with recent origination projections from Fannie Mae and MBA, and respondents spanned banks, credit unions, and nonbanks fairly evenly. Yet fewer than a quarter of companies, across every size threshold surveyed, said they expect to decrease headcount even slightly. That sounds like good news for staffing until you notice what the more common answer actually was: not hiring, but holding steady. The most frequent strategy heading into a year most lenders expect to be better than the last isn't expansion. It's standing pat.
The Quote Driving the Hesitation
One bank lender manager, at a company originating between 1,000 and 4,999 loans per year, put the underlying anxiety plainly in comments to National Mortgage News: "AI is going to eliminate most ops positions." That sentiment doesn't need to be universally shared to shape hiring behavior. Even a meaningful minority of decision-makers hesitant to add permanent headcount because they're uncertain what AI will do to specific roles is enough to keep hiring plans flat industry-wide, even against a genuinely optimistic revenue outlook.
Why This Is the Wrong Risk to Focus On
Uncertainty about AI's long-term effect on specific roles is a reasonable thing to think carefully about. But treating that uncertainty as a reason to freeze headcount entirely creates a different, more immediate risk: a lender expecting real revenue growth with no staffing plan to support it is setting up for a scramble the moment that growth actually materializes. Standing pat isn't a neutral choice. It's a bet that either the growth won't show up as expected, or that existing staff can absorb it without strain, neither of which is guaranteed just because headcount stayed flat.
The Middle Path Between Over-Hiring and Under-Staffing
Flexible, outsourced operational support sidesteps this exact bind. It doesn't require betting on permanent headcount before growth is confirmed, and it doesn't leave a lender flat-footed if that growth does arrive on schedule. Capacity can expand to match real volume as it shows up, rather than requiring a hiring decision made months in advance based on a forecast that may or may not hold.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are mortgage lenders expecting revenue growth in 2026? Yes. A National Mortgage News survey found 84% of industry professionals expect revenue to increase in 2026 versus 2025, with only 3% anticipating a decline.
If lenders expect growth, why aren't more of them hiring? Hesitation tied to AI's uncertain long-term effect on operations roles appears to be a significant factor. Rather than expanding headcount, the more common response in the survey was holding staffing flat despite an optimistic revenue outlook.
What's a lower-risk way to prepare for expected growth without over-hiring? Flexible, outsourced operational support allows capacity to scale with actual volume as it arrives, rather than requiring a permanent headcount commitment made in advance based on a forecast.
Scale operations with revenue, not against a forecast. Contact BrokerVA.